XRP has experienced a 23.4% decline since Nov. 4, suffering a more significant downturn than bitcoin, personal assessments rather than statistical probabilities.
The core issue is that the market structure was already fragile before XRP entered its current downtrend. XRP had previously slipped below the $1.24 to $1.26 range, leaving a high volume of leveraged long positions stacked beneath the spot price. In such a configuration, forced liquidations can trigger a chain reaction as prices fall, further intensifying the downward momentum.
In practice, XRP surrendered key support zones one after another. The market first dipped below $1.19, followed by the consecutive breakdown of $1.14 and $1.10. The $1.10 level had been identified as a significant downside target once XRP failed to hold $1.26. With the price now hovering near $1.05, the immediate zone that buyers must defend has tightened to between $1.00 and $1.04.
EGRAG Crypto’s primary theory involves a liquidity hunt designed to flush out “OG” early holders. However, this cannot be verified through price action alone. If support levels fail, a wave of forced liquidations and stop-loss orders can hit the market simultaneously, amplifying the decline even in the absence of manipulation.
The theory regarding selling by long-term holders remains speculative. A variety of factors could be occurring at once, including spot selling, derivatives liquidations, a reduction in buy-side orders, and a broader risk-off market sentiment. Unless on-chain data confirms specific deposits to exchanges and subsequent selling by long-term holders, the assertion that early investors are driving the decline lacks sufficient evidence.
Recent on-chain activity has also indicated that some large holders have increased their positions despite the weak market. This has led to skepticism regarding the idea that whales are acting in unison to sell off their holdings.
For a short-term recovery, XRP must first reclaim the $1.15 level. It would then need to climb back into the $1.20 to $1.25 range for the short-term technical structure to show meaningful improvement. If the $1.00 to $1.04 defense fails, downward pressure near $1 could intensify. Currently, the most credible explanations for XRP’s sharp drop remain its fragile market structure and excessive leveraged long exposure, while the actual impact of long-term holder selling or intentional liquidity hunting remains unproven.
